Category: Op-Ed

Change Afoot in Northern Oxfordshire

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I did say I’d be back with more thoughts on the creation of the Northern Oxfordshire Council alongside Greater Oxford and the Ridgeway. And here I am.

Having had three options on the table, with each having strong and very vocal backers, no choice was ever going to get unanimous cheers – there are simply too many knock-on effects for that sort of unanimity. But sometimes you have a situation where a call must be made, and this was one of them.

IMO, pulling Banbury out from the administrative shadow and the massive tourist gravitational pull of Oxford is more positive than negative.

I don’t imagine that the adjustments and shifts will all be smooth. It’s not going to be a walk in the park. There will be plenty of serious administrative heavy lifting, new strategic alignments, a complete rethinking of how local services and budgets are managed, and political wrestling behind closed doors (and occasionally in the headlines).

Now, given what I’ve spent the last two years doing, it won’t surprise anyone to know I’ve looked at some of this through a visitor economy lens. Not exclusively, but it’s where my head is these days. 

For years, Banbury has effectively been treated as an edge case (if it was noticed at all) while regional visitor economy efforts and investment were (understandably) drawn to Oxford. 

Under the new structure, that dynamic flips and Banbury becomes the new administrative heavyweight, and that position has a direct impact on visitor economy decision-making surrounding the area.

Why do I think Banbury becomes the administrative centre? Well, it’s not because I am privy to any secrets – I can assure you of that. It just makes the most sense. At roughly 50,000 residents, Banbury will be the largest urban settlement in the new Northern authority, outweighing “sibling” towns like Witney (~30k) and Bicester (also ~30k). As Cherwell’s current headquarters is already at Castle Quay, the political and administrative gravity of the new council naturally sits right here in town.

And yes, I know West Oxfordshire’s offices are in Witney. I love Witney. But from a logistical point of view, it makes more sense (to me, anyway) for the headquarters of the council to be in a location with robust transport links. Witney, delightful though it is, simply doesn’t have those.

So, assuming I am right about Banbury becoming the administrative centre of the new council (I might not be, but you never know), it could give the local visitor economy a much clearer focus.

Instead of trying to fit into a generic “Cotswolds-adjacent” or ‘Oxford-overflow’ box, a Northern Oxfordshire council has an opportunity to define its own visitor identity. 

Uniting much of Cherwell with West Oxfordshire gives a single entity control over a unique “Cotswolds & Canal” corridor. Or it could lean into the idea of being England’s crossroads: canals, market towns, country houses, motorsport, the edge of the Cotswolds, and shopping. It’s a story that is economically coherent and distinct from what will very likely remain Oxford’s world-famous academic and heritage offer.

Banbury, thanks to its location and transport links, then evolves from a commuter and transit town into a destination hub. Up until now, regional tourism strategy was all about “dispersing” visitors out of overcrowded Oxford for quick day trips. The new Northern council won’t be trying to manage Oxford’s crowds; it will be focused on keeping visitors and spend right here in the north.

With our rail links and direct M40 access, Banbury is the logical base for people to stay, eat, and explore the wider northern landscape. It’s the next evolution of something we’ve said on The Banburian blog for years: Banbury’s central location makes it an ideal base for exploring some of England’s premier attractions without paying premier-attraction prices for hotels. Stay at a hotel or B&B in Banbury and you are less than an hour (often less than 30 minutes) from a wealth of locations serving a wide range of interests.

In order for the whole of the new council area to feel the benefit of those connections, the “last mile” and the “spoke” parts of the “hub-and-spoke” transport infrastructure will need serious thinking. But then, a lot of things will need serious thinking in the new council’s landscape. What’s one more?

None of this is going to happen automatically, and it will take strong local advocacy to make sure our town centre gets the focus and investment it deserves. But it feels to me like, after a long time, the map is finally drawn in a way that allows the northern part of the county to shine in its own way.

Opinions are not facts. Not even in Banbury

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When people moan about Banbury not being what it used to be, I usually ignore it. Partly because it’s boring, but mostly because nothing is what it used to be – not people, places or events. Not even those fading into the rose-tinted past. That’s simply how places evolve.

But today someone on another page pinned the decline of Banbury (as they saw it) to the creation of Castle Quay and I thought to myself ‘Well, that’s just nuts.’ I won’t labour the point that opinions aren’t facts, no matter how confidently they’re stated.

But this Castle Quay theory? No. Opinion it may be but it’s also nonsense. How do I know? Because I looked it up.

It wasn’t entirely clear whether they meant the original Castle Shopping Centre, which opened in 1977, or Castle Quay following its 2000 rebranding. Since they specifically said Castle Quay, let’s use 2000 as our starting point.

What happened between 2000 and 2020?

The biggest change was a shift from a traditional market town with London overspill growth into a highly connected hub of logistics, advanced engineering, and motorsport innovation. Did CQ have a role in that one way or another? Probably not. The town’s location and its transport links were probably far more important factors

The estimated population was around 41,900 in 2000, rising to around 48,000–50,000 by 2020. It’s still going up now. 55,000 to 60,000 was the last estimate. What drives that rise? Employment opportunities and transport connectivity.

And the economy?

What about key economic drivers? In 2000 it was manufacturing and the food industry. By 2020, it had expanded with logistics/distribution taking the lead followed by advanced engineering and motorsport (and the food industry still plays an important role today). The shift from factories to logistics? Nothing to do with Castle Quay and everything to do with location, location, location and transport connectivity again.

You can’t talk about economic health without mentioning unemployment. Banbury has routinely had low unemployment across the area. In 2000 it was below the national average (approx. 2%–3%). By 2020 it was even lower than the national average, exceptionally low, at around 0.7%–1.5%. Even now, it remains resolutely below national averages.

What about retail? That front-facing thing everyone clamps on to like it’s some sort of gotcha.

I hope we can all agree that retail has been experiencing systemic, widespread disruption for the last 20 years or so. It’s been a massive shift impacting countless livelihoods, consumer behaviour of all kinds and the ripple effect can be felt across the global economy.

Was that shift underway between the launch of Castle Quay and now? Yes. Absolutely. Has that shift impacted the retail offering in Banbury? Yes, absolutely. Was that shift created by the launch and existence of Castle Quay? No.

In fact, I would suggest that Castle Quay was never a major factor in Banbury’s economic trajectory.

By 2020, the rise of online shopping and out-of-town retail parks systematically disrupted high streets everywhere, not just in Banbury. It wasn’t the shopping centre that changed consumer habits – it was the internet and wider economic shifts.

Look, I’m not saying Castle Quay has been a total success. Like many shopping centres, it’s had to adapt to the huge changes in retail. But that’s a very different claim from saying it caused Banbury’s decline.

So about this alleged decline?

The evidence simply doesn’t support the idea that Castle Quay triggered some sort of decline in Banbury. Between 2000 and 2020 the town was growing – in population, employment and economic diversity. Retail certainly changed, but that happened in towns across the country as online shopping and wider economic forces reshaped Britain’s high streets. Blaming Castle Quay isn’t just an oversimplification; it mistakes coincidence for cause.

Population and employment figures are drawn from ONS and local authority data.